The civil war in Sudan has entered its third year and is still far from over

On February 22, a charter was signed in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, establishing a parallel 'Government of Peace and Unity' in Sudan in opposition to the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The ceremony, organized by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), was attended by various political parties and armed groups.

For the past two years, Sudan has been engulfed in civil war, and the signing of the charter comes amid military progress achieved by the Sudanese army, which has recently succeeded in pushing the RSF out of the capital, Khartoum, and other regions. Given the situation on the battlefield and the fact that international legal organizations and countries, including the US,accusethe RSF of initiating ethnic cleansing, the success of the initiative is questionable. However, the agreement reached in Nairobi poses the threat of further division in Sudan, as the RSF still controls large territories in the west and south.

Sudanese Armed Forces

The charter states that Sudan should become a "secular, democratic, decentralized state" with a unified army, but armed groups should also be allowed to exist. It also emphasizes that the establishment of a new government is not aimed at fracturing the country but rather at ending the conflict. According to Al Hadi Idris, a former TSC member and leader of one of the armed factions who also signed the charter, an announcement about the formation of the new 'Government of Peace and Unity' will be made soon.

The response from Sudan's official authorities was predictably negative. "We will not allow any other country to recognize this so-called parallel government," stated Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef al-Sharif.

A conflict between former brothers-in-arms

The war between the army and the RSF - once allies who governed the country during the transitional period - erupted in April 2023 over disputes regarding the timeline for integrating the RSF into the Sudanese Armed Forces. Previously, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as 'Hemedti', shared power with the army and civilian politicians under an agreement reached following the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. In 2021, along with the commander of the armed forces and Chairman of the TSC Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, he helped remove civilian leaders, including former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, from their posts - an act that was viewed by the international community as a new coup.

FILE PHOTO: RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

Mahmoud Hjaj / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

From the very start of the conflict, the RSF seized key strategic locations and neighborhoods in Khartoum and other areas. However, by the time the charter was signed in Nairobi, the Sudanese army had pushed the RSF out of much of the capital and central Sudan, reclaiming major cities in Sennar State in the southeast. Nonetheless, the RSF still maintains control over significant territories in Darfur and continues to fight with the armed forces for control over North Darfur State and its capital, Al-Fashir.

At the same time, large areas of South Kordofan and certain areas of Blue Nile State, which borders South Sudan, are under the control of the rebel group the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdelaziz Adam al-Hilu, who announced cooperation with the RSF during the charter signing in Nairobi.

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The UN human rights office says the conflict has triggered the world's largest displacement crisis, leaving half of Sudan's population facing acute food insecurity. At least 14 million people have been forced from their homes, seeking refuge in other parts of Sudan or neighboring countries such as Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad.

According to a report published last November by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine researchers, more than 61,000 people were killed in the first 14 months of the violence in Khartoum State, where the fighting began. The non-profit organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) said it had recorded over 28,700 fatalities by the end of November, including over 7,500 civilians killed in direct attacks.

Kenya's role

Following the signing of the charter in Nairobi, the Sudanese government accused the Kenyan authorities of orchestrating a "plot with the goal of establishing a government" for the RSF. Protesting against Kenya's involvement in discussions aimed at forming a 'parallel government', Sudan recalled its ambassador to Nairobi, Kamal Jabara. In response, Nairobi stated that the meetings were part of efforts to find solutions to end the war in Sudan, in collaboration with the UN and the African Union.

Many countries in the Middle East expressed solidarity with the Sudanese government. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatarexpressedtheir support for Sudan's territorial integrity. Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the establishment of parallel structures would "further deepen Sudan's fragmentation." During a March 6 meeting, the UN Security Council expressed serious concern over the charter and its potential humanitarian consequences,reaffirmingits commitment to Sudan's sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

The idea of an Arab state

On March 4, Abdul Rahim Dagalo, the deputy commander of the RSF and brother of Hemedti, signed a so-called 'Transitional Constitution of the Republic of Sudan for 2025' with Abdelaziz al-Hilu and other opposition leaders. This marked the practical beginning of efforts to establish a parallel state centered in Darfur, an area currently under RSF control.

RSF deputy commander Abdul Rahim Dagalo gestures during a signing ceremony for the Sudan Founding Charter, aimed at forming a unity government, at KICC in Nairobi, February 18, 2025.

AP Photo / Andrew Kasuku

Meanwhile, significant demographic and political changes have taken place in Darfur in recent months. Intense fighting continues between the RSF and a coalition of the Sudanese army and local armed movements led by Minni Arkoi Minnawi, the leader of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA).

At the same time, Hemedti and his deputies have managed to recruit tens of thousands of African mercenaries, primarily from loyal Arab tribes. Hemedti himself hails from the Rizeigat tribe, an Arab ethnic group that migrated to western Sudan during the 1980s due to war and drought in Chad, where they had engaged in camel herding and trade.

FILE PHOTO: Sudanese soldiers from the Rapid Support Forces.

AP Photo / Hussein Malla

The Sudanese authorities have previously expressed concern over the presence of foreign mercenaries in the RSF. Sovereign Council member and Army Assistant Commander-in-Chief Yasir Al-Atta hasrepeatedlynoted that the RSF recruits thousands of mercenaries from countries such as Chad, Ethiopia, Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Initially, there were about 120,000 fighters and gradually 49,000 more servicemen joined the RSF. Al-Atta also accused the UAE and South Sudan of supplying the RSF with arms and fuel.

It's important to note that Arab tribes are actively participating in the administrative changes and demographic reshaping initiated by the RSF in Darfur. Sudanese experts have long suggested that Hemedti wants to create a state for Arabs dispersed across the Sahel countries. This sentiment has also been echoed by the authorities in Sudan. In September 2024, Yasir Al-Attastatedthat the UAE had urged the RSF leader to consider establishing an Arab state in Sudan to better control agricultural lands, ports, and gold mines.

An emirate in Darfur?

A noteworthy development occurred last October, when the establishment of a new 'emirate' for Awlad Baraka and Mubarak - an Arab group from the Central African Republic - was announced in Central Darfur. Members of this group, who belong to the Salamat Arab tribe, had lived in the southern part of Zalingei before the war, but their number increased significantly after the RSF seized control of the state. This decision sparked fierce resistance from the indigenous population, predominantly the Fur people, who accused the rebels of occupying their territory.

FILE PHOTO: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction on 27 August 2024, Omdurman, Sudan.

Mudathir Hameed / picture alliance via Getty Images

Accordingto local activists, the establishment of an 'emirate' for the Awlad Baraka and Mubarak group is part of a broader trend of demographic shifts in the Darfur region. Whenever the RSF and allied Arab tribes seize new territory, they set up parallel tribal administrations that wield far greater authority than existing historical tribal structures. This process ofteninvolvesviolence, forced displacement, and other crimes against the local non-Arab population.

Why did General Burhan go on a foreign tour amidst the conflict?

Recognizing the dangers posed by these developments, the Commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Chairman of Sudan's Sovereignty Council Abdel Fattah al-Burhan embarked on a tour of West African countries in January, accompanied by senior intelligence and defense officials. His discussions with leaders from Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Senegal, and Mauritania focused primarily on the involvement of Arab-African mercenaries in the RSF. This trip came on the heels of the Sudanese army's successful offensive in Gezira State, Khartoum, and North Kordofan.

FILE PHOTO: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

Mahmoud Hjaj / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The nations Burhan visited generally maintain a neutral stance regarding the conflict in Sudan. However, given the failures of French policy in Africa and Washington's inaction, Burhan has a significant opportunity to garner their support based on a growing alignment with powers such as Russia and China.

Interestingly, Sierra Leone, one of the stops on his tour, has been elected a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. In November 2024, at the urging of the UK, it introduced a draft resolution calling for direct international intervention in Sudan under the pretext of protecting civilians. Russia vetoed this proposal, earning gratitude from Sudan while being labeled an aggressor by the West.

Does the parallel government stand a chance?

Despite the ceremonious signing of the charter in Nairobi, the chances are slim that the parallel government in Sudan will receive international recognition and support. The key figure, Mohamed Hamdan 'Hemedti' Dagalo, was absent at the ceremony, during the negotiations that preceded it, and during the subsequent signing of the constitution. In early February, the Wall Street Journalreportedthat Hemedti had not been seen in public for several months, raising questions about his whereabouts. At official events and on the battlefield, he has been replaced by his brother Abdul Rahim Dagalo, the deputy leader of the RSF.

In recent times, Hemedti has only appeared publicly in two brief video messages, both of which provide little clarity about his whereabouts, and the authenticity of these clips is questionable. Throughout the conflict, he has been seen among his troops on just two occasions: once at the start of the war, riding in a military vehicle dressed in the RSF uniform, and again in July 2023, in a video with his soldiers. The RSF's press service claimed that the footage was shot in Khartoum. Since then, there has been no documented evidence of his presence in Sudan.

Just days before the signing of the charter, a split occurred in the 'Tagadum' civil bloc, leading opponents of the new government to leave the coalition alongside the pro-British former Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, who remains popular among Sudanese citizens. The organization split into two new factions: 'Sumud' - made up of those who oppose the charter, and 'Ta'sis' - made up of those who support it. Consequently, the architects of the parallel government lost a prominent leader who could have bolstered their chances for success.

Attempts to enlist other political figures like Fadlallah Burma Nasir and Ibrahim Al-Mirghani to obtain the support of Sudan's two largest political parties - the National Umma Party and the Democratic Unionist Party - also fell flat. Nasir attended the ceremony without the approval of the Umma Party which he leads, but other party members later stated that his presence was a personal initiative that did not reflect the party's position. Meanwhile, Ibrahim Al-Mirghani, a descendant of the founder of the Democratic Unionist Party, Ahmed al-Mirghani, attended the event as the party's representative. However, later the Democratic Unionist Party stated that he had been expelled from it back in 2022. As a result, neither organization officially signed the Nairobi charter.

Despite lacking significant leverage, opposition groups hope that the establishment of a parallel government in Sudan will allow them to easily procure weapons abroad. "The parallel government being set up by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) aims to grab diplomatic legitimacy from its army-led rival and ease access to advanced weaponry," a source in the RSFtoldReuters.

However, for this new structure to succeed, it needs international recognition, which no country has yet provided. Several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, along with Egypt, have rejected the plan for the so-called 'Government of Peace and Unity' while the UAE and Western countries, which presumably support the RSF, have so far remained silent.

(RT.com)